By Elijah Levine: Before I release this series of articles, I just want to say that I am unbelievably bullish on the world and think that we are generally taking steps in the right direction to a more sustainable future. That said, I have some thoughts, observations, and ideas that I am excited to share about the risk we are in related to unprecedented global debt. I have no idea what the timing of any of this will be- or if it will ever happen- but at this rate, it’s hard to imagine something not giving. I am more excited about this three part piece of literature that I've put together as my senior capstone Wharton graduation project than anything else I've ever released.
REITs
By Elijah Levine: We are in a slow burn market repricing... transactions are slow because both buyers and most sellers don’t necessarily have a lot of pressure to transact. Sellers, even if faced with higher debt burdens, do not want to refinance and potentially have a lot of their equity value wiped out, while buyers simply can’t afford the debt payments on their target assets at the prices of yesterday’s low interest (and cap) rate environment that sellers are seeking to transact at.
Power
By Elijah Levine: Power can mean very different things in very different contexts but still, whoever has the power, has the power.
Power exists in all situations- in money, influence, confidence, health, and more. It also exists in a “real” sense of data or energy assets such as smart phones, computers, data centers, houses, solar panels, wind turbines, nuclear power plants, sub stations, and so much more…
Is it Time for Developers to Unlock Middle Housing?
By Ben Comeau: Residential real estate in the U.S. has largely been dominated by the single-family detached home and apartment products. Discover why and how middle-market housing could potentially emerge as a market-based solution to the nation’s severe housing affordability crisis.
Paradise Haven: Miami’s Exclusive Oasis for the Ultra-Elite
By Laurenz Frank: Miami is home to some of the world’s most prominent Ultra-High-Net-Worth-Individuals (UHNWI), and has recorded a jump of 30% in billionaires residing there since 2020. Explore why Indian Creek Island, a private island close to downtown Miami, has been at the heart of this boom.
Blockchain Technology Disrupting Real Estate
By Elijah Levine: While Blockchain has the potential to touch all aspects of real estate, it has already begun to make a true value-producing impact on specific real estate ecosystems. These include marketplaces, asset and property management, and even land and property registries.
The Extension Project: Where Luxury Meets Sustainability in Monaco’s French Riviera
By Laurenz Frank: The principality of Monaco is known as the most expensive city in the world for residential real estate, with an average price tag of $1,901 per square meter. The Extension, an ongoing offshore luxury development project, is poised to establish Monaco as a premier international real estate hub.
2024 Deals We’re Watching: Buyout Bid for Macy’s
By Jed Chew: In December 2023, Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management submitted an unsolicited $5.8 billion take-private bid for Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M). Discover the real estate value play behind this buyout offer and how it differs from previous buyouts of struggling retail chains.
2024 Trends We’re Watching: Rediscovering Retail
By Jed Chew: In the Urban Land Institute’s 2024 Emerging Trends Report, retail has emerged as a “CRE darling” after years of high-profile department store bankruptcies and mall closures. Discover how retail has made a remarkable turnaround, and the implications this might hold for the office sector which is facing broad distress today.
Automated Construction in Commercial Real Estate
By Sanders Deutsch: Automation holds vast potential for transforming real estate, design, and complication, but its application needs to be discerning. Discover how today’s innovations in modular construction and 3D printing are just the tip of the iceberg.
Demand Shock Drives Golf Course Development
By Joseph Holahan: Despite supply changes, soaring interest rates, and prior closures, the pandemic’s impact sparked a golf resurgence. Younger players, remote work trends, and a global shift signal a lasting demand for golf real estate. Discover the investment opportunities and unique developments in this changing landscape.
The Macroeconomic Tug of War of Today
By Elijah Levine: Transaction volume across most private markets, but especially real estate, is significantly down. Interest rates haven’t been this high for over a decade but at the same time more capital has been poured into the system than ever before. Discover what today’s epic macroeconomic “tug of war” means for price discovery and real assets.
Malls Must Evolve to Survive
By Sanders Deutsch: The floundering of malls has forced landlords to rethink their approach with business models becoming archaic. But despite the boom of e-commerce and the wavering success of department stores, there will always be a need for in-person retail and malls. Discover how landlords and tenants are repositioning themselves to capitalize on the eventual retail recovery.
How Autonomous Vehicles Could Drive Fundamental Real Estate Changes
How Blockchain Technology is Revolutionizing Real Estate
By: Elijah Levine
Whether you believe in the actual technology or have just heard about it through the general hype (or one of our below articles), it appears that blockchains and cryptocurrencies have now touched pretty much everybody’s life in one way or another.
Of course, everybody’s involvement is not the same. Some people might have downloaded an app on their iPhone to purchase some $BTC or $ETH (or even just to observe them), while others are deep in Solidity, Ethereum’s native coding language, building smart contracts to decide outcomes, infrastructure, fundraising, and governance, and more on numerous projects around the world.
What is a smart contract? Glad you asked, smart contracts are electronic contracts written in code that decide outcomes algebraically based on inputs, proof of information, or other required actions.
Many of the new layer-1s, such as $ICP and $ROSE, have easier to use and even more scalable smart contract capabilities than $ETH.
The possibilities of this technology are truly limitless as it is so applicable across industries. From government to real estate, music to gaming, auditing, healthcare, and more, the world is in need for major technological upgrades.
For centuries, we have observed business infrastructure and the legal system fail thousands of people around the world, data be mismanaged, and blatant fraud occur at all levels of private and public sectors alike.
Modern technology like blockchains and smart contracts are slowly but surely changing all of this, and a couple key players are leading the way.
In this article we will focus on those leading in the world of real estate.
To begin, I want to introduce the concept of a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (or “DAO”), which is one of the rare environments in which true decentralization, and therefore true democracy, can occur (if set up properly).
A DAO is basically an LLC that is governed via smart contracts and verified on the blockchain. Proper DAOs are registered with the state they incorporated in (only Vermont and Wyoming legalized DAOs thus far). A perfectly decentralized DAO would have a myriad of members and every member would have one vote.
Modern decentralized frameworks like DAOs have made the securitization of assets even more popular. At first, this securitization happened almost exclusively in the form of tokens (and many still do), but now more and more creators are looking towards even better solutions like DAOs, Non-Fungible Tokens (or “NFTs”), and other decentralized frameworks to securitize various assets.
It sounds complicated but it’s not. Most people don’t understand how many “NFTs” already exist out there and how many are used daily.
Some familiar examples (both physical and digital) are receipts, tickets, watches, TVs, food, basically anything that is uniquely identifiable (think serial numbers) and could in theory be traded. Of course, you would never make an NFT for food unless you planned on never eating it, because as soon as you ate it, it would cease to exist – although this could be thought of as a burn function in NFT lingo – just like you would never (or at least rarely) trade your food.
On the other end of that spectrum, your data that big tech companies are tracking and storing are also NFTs. Each data log of what specific websites you clicked at what specific times, or any and every other action you’ve ever taken online, is unique to you and immutably stored in one of Facebook, Google, and / or Apple’s data centers.
I believe that Web3 will not only bring the importance of data ownership to the attention of everyday people, but also allow those people to understand and participate in it. A growing amount of people are already starting to use NFTs, DAOs, and other modern decentralized frameworks in evermore creative ways.
Take Balcony DAO, for example, a group working to tokenize shares in investment properties through NFTs.
Not only does each person’s individual NFT represent their share of ownership in that given property, but they are working to build out the ability to deliver “data rooms” to investors via specific, KYC-ed NFTs.
The main benefit of this would be that those on both sides of the equation (the data viewer and the data provider) are certain of each other’s identity, but it would also create a more streamlined, secure, and organized way to view, compare, and continuously reference important diligence material.
Tokenizing real assets (and even fractionalized ownership of them) is not necessarily something that new, but delivering immutable, KYC-ed information through that tokenized asset (or even alongside it) is extremely novel, interesting, and promising for the space.
Even large institutional groups, like KKR, have been securitizing funds through tokens, but securitizing assets, even with tokens, still falls in the pretty traditional finance world- even though it is very cool and exciting to see more large institutions using blockchain technologies to do this.
More intangibly, we’ve observed “Metaverse” companies of all shapes and sizes pop up during the last few years, especially with the continued popularity of blockchains and online media.
That said, not many groups have done it all that well. The Sandbox might have reached mass consciousness and attracted major celebrities, but their platform looks like a crappy, half-developed game from 2010 or earlier.
These stylized facts become apparent in the data.
As of October 10th, 2022, The Sandbox had 616 Daily Active Users (DAUs) and Decentraland, another Metaverse product that was massively popular during the last few years, had just 23.
Blockcities, on the other hand, has developed infrastructure for the real world while leveraging the “Metaverse” in the process.
Designed to be a bridge between digital and physical worlds, Blockcities has created a digital twin of the earth to visualize and synchronize future upgrades in the real world. They did this by overlaying the entire world with high resolution Google Map images broken out into hexagonal land parcels that investors can purchase to own “land” in the Blockcities Metaverse.
All functionality is facilitated through smart contracts, with the ability to be exported as widgets that can show up in other systems. In the future, this will look like pins tied to real world locations, each pin with unique utility.
The plan is for all current functions of cities to occur in a much more efficient, transparent, and technology-enabled way. This includes everything from voting to bidding on open community projects, analyzing properties available for rent and purchase to owning shares of real world assets, and more.
While these functions may appear in a “Metaverse” setting, Blockcities has been built to integrate the physical world into functionality and application as much as possible.
At this point, it’s very important to understand that each of these tech platforms is and should be considered its own “Metaverse,” and that the word “Metaverse” really just describes any digital platform that allows users to interact simultaneously in the same place – even Instagram and Snapchat are examples of Metaverses in the truest sense of the word – although digital twins and AR / VR have pushed us towards accepting more of this new tech as the modern “Metaverse.”
Blockcities is doing a lot differently than many other Metaverses that I find particularly interesting. The first thing is that it’s structured as a DAO based on land ownership, which is very rare for Metaverse projects.
While many other projects have focused on community, Blockcities has focused on community but also utility for investors, starting specifically with governance. They are working to partner with local governments for the governance of Blockcities-owned parcels to be settled on-chain.
Establishing strong or at least some sort of communication between local government and highly modernized technology will happen eventually. The sooner that work starts, the higher chance of success, alignment, and progress on things we care about.
There are big problems facing us all, but tech can help us solve them.
Blockcities also encourages real ownership alongside digital ownership and has plans to deliver additional tangible benefits other than governance and community to landowners over time. Like many other Metaverses, there is a fee share for others doing things on (or sometimes even just visiting) your land in the virtual world.
Outside of the virtual world, Utah-based startup Estate Chain is one of many groups helping settle physical real estate transactions in crypto. However, Estate Chain and most of the other companies mentioned so far in this article are relatively new and / or startup companies. There are large groups in the space that have tried and true technology as shown by their transaction volume.
One company, called Propy, has done over $4B in transactions since its founding in 2015. Propy helps users settle transactions in crypto, ensure proper property title diligence and transfer, and even turn houses into NFTs.
As more and more groups continue to build and innovate in the space, it’s extremely exciting to see smart executers utilizing modern technology and working together to progress the tech-enablement of outdated industries.
How Blockchain Has Revolutionized Real Estate Investing
By: Leah Golubchik
Although the real estate industry has traditionally depended on face-to-face interactions, firms have been forced to reshape their structures due to the Covid-19 pandemic. As the real estate market continues to adapt to changes in response to the pandemic, the industry has become more reliant on technology in all sectors. One of the newest advancements to make its way into the field is blockchain, which has revolutionized the real estate market. This digital-asset craze has continued to skyrocket over the past few years, and has infiltrated both personal and commercial real estate investing.
Real estate investing has numerous drawbacks that prevent structured and accessible movement of transactions. For example, the industry has high barriers to entry due to extremely high capital requirements. Further, economies of scale play a part in real estate investing, as well-connected firms and individuals have access to greater opportunities, which can even include off-market transactions. Lastly, real estate is vastly illiquid, making it hard to divide and convert its value, therefore it is usually not owned in shares.
However, as this new technology penetrates the market, such disadvantages of personal and commercial real estate investing seem to shrink. Blockchain allows for a streamlined system of both information and value that anyone is able to obtain, as it is not possessed by a single entity. Furthermore, it eliminates the need for a middle man through smart contracts, which allow assets to be tokenized and be traded on the blockchain. This reduces the fees and commissions that these intermediaries charge, and makes the process much quicker. The decentralization of blockchain makes it highly transparent and immutable, which establishes that processing of financing and payments is more secure. The illiquidity issue is also solved with this technology, as tokens allow for real estate to be easily traded. This also opens up the opportunity for crowdfunding and fractional shares, as more investors will be able to participate in deals due to lower ownership liabilities and capital requirements. All of these advantages of blockchain lower the barriers to real estate investing and ensure the entire process of buying and selling these assets is dynamic and efficient.
The benefits of implementing blockchain into real estate investing are clear, but how have these developments emerged in the real world? Just earlier this year, the mayor of Miami suggested authorizing residents to pay property taxes or city fees with cryptocurrency. Soon after that, an anonymous buyer purchased a Miami penthouse paid fully in cryptocurrency for $28 million, which was declared “the most expensive known residential crypto real estate transaction in the U.S. to date.” In the commercial world, commercial real estate investor Aviva Sonenreich describes how online marketplaces are influencing this sphere, “For example, ATLANT is a platform that tokenizes properties; the trading can all be done online, and the tokens can be exchanged for fiat currency. From my perspective, understanding the value in tokenizing real estate is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the future of partnerships and investments on the blockchain.” New technological developments in the real estate industry are appearing everyday, and everyone is anticipating what the future of real estate transactions on the blockchain will look like.
Are We on the Verge of Another Housing Crisis? The Facts
By: Elijah Levine
In the midst of a growing economy, rapidly shifting political landscape, and a plethora of other factors, many Americans are wondering if a repeat of 2008 is right around the corner. There may be some validity in these claims, but before delving too much into whether these claims are right or wrong, let’s get the facts.
What Factors Indicate a Market Crash Is Coming
The United States economy is one of, if not the most, complicated economies in the entire world. At any given point in time, 350 million people are working to navigate hundreds of thousands of market factors, whether they know it or not. But what factors indicate that the market might be on the verge of crashing? Gord Collins outlines 13 critical factors that tend to contribute to a crashing economy.
Excessively High Home Prices
Increasing Underwater Mortgages
Fast Rising Interest Mortgage Rates
Rapid Reduction of Government Spending
Slowing Economy/Sudden Rises in unemployment
Wage Growth not Keeping Up with Home Prices
Geopolitical Shifts Specifically Pertaining to Tax Changes
Trade Wars
Volatile Stock Market
High Levels of Consumer Debt
Rising Cost of Living
Risky Low Rate Mortgages
High Energy Prices (oil, gas, etc.)
What Does This Mean for Us?
It is obvious why many of these factors would contribute to a crashing market, however, these factors are not equal across the United States. Some cities are still experiencing dramatic consequences from the last recession, while others have bounced back but are now faced with a series of other ominous factors. So how can one tell if the economy is on the verge of a freefall?
The short answer: we can’t, nobody can. Whatever happens to the economy is not the result of one single factor across the entire country, it is a combination of factors that exist all across the country in different capacities and intensities. That being said, there are some critical factors affecting the economy as a whole right now that must be considered.
Currently, despite a very strong GDP and relatively stable real estate economic status, interest rates are rising fast… very fast. The Federal Reserve System (FED) is raising interest rates to as high as 70% in order to cool down our rapidly growing economy so that it doesn’t spiral out of control. President Trump is not happy about this, saying that this is a premature move as the economy will not reach critical limits for over a year. Experts agree, stating that every time the FED has raised interests rates this much this quickly, it has lead to a major recession. Experts state that raising rates kills off businesses and puts immense pressure on mortgage holders.
A major cause for the FED’s decision to raise the interest rate is arguably the most serious factor that indicates a crash is near: the current trade war with China. President Trump raised import tariffs from China from 10% to 25% at the start of 2019, and this is significantly affecting US businesses, in both good and bad ways. Importing businesses have been losing money as their costs have increased by 15%, while suppliers have gained business as purchasers may be actually saving money from buying domestically. Critics say that this is bad for our economy as it seems more businesses are hurt, rather than helped, however, others say that this is a step towards establishing a fair and mutually beneficial trade relationship with China. One thing is certain: if proper steps are not taken to ensure a mutually beneficial trade relationship, this trade war will only be detrimental to the United States economy and could pull other factors in the direction of a market freefall, something that nobody wants.
With all of this in consideration, 100 experts were polled on when they think the next recession is coming. The majority of them (22%) believe that the recession is coming in the first quarter of 2020. However, nobody can be quite sure, things can change. Trump may be able to figure out a proper trade deal, factors could not contribute as much as some people think, and the discrepancies between cities could shift. There are so many factors at play, but in looking at whether the housing market will crash or not, there is no definitive answer; only time will tell.
Cryptocurrencies & Real Estate
By: Elijah Levine
Cryptocurrencies have been around for quite some time, perhaps the most famous, Bitcoin, was created in 2009, however, it hasn’t been until the last two years that cryptocurrencies have been truly integrated into society. Cryptocurrencies are digital currencies which operate on what is called a blockchain. A blockchain can be thought about as an online ledger, where every single transaction is securely electronically recorded, with no means of hiding the transaction record. Although blockchains have the capacity to record any type of information, currencies have widely been digitally developed to operate solely on these platforms, these are called cryptocurrencies.
As cryptocurrencies become more integrated into society, the roles that they play in society will become more diverse. One of the main areas cryptocurrencies has seen interesting expansion is in the world of real estate. In the last two years, numerous properties in both Europe and the United States have been purchased using cryptocurrencies, and this is just the beginning. As this new technology becomes more prevalent in real estate transactions, and both buyers and sellers need to be aware of what this means for them.
Sellers need to be especially aware, as younger demographics who are more interested in and or more accepting of cryptocurrencies continue to enter into the market. Some of the positive things that sellers can look forward to are a wider audience, as more and more people start to accept cryptocurrencies, more and more people will be looking to make transactions with them. Not to mention that cryptocurrencies themselves have the potential to yield massive returns on investments. That being said, sellers need to be careful on the same account: cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile meaning that unlike other assets, they can lose their entire value overnight. Sellers are also faced with a very complicated tax situation, cryptocurrency tax law is extremely new and extremely complicated, something that sellers need to take into special consideration.
As for buyers, there are also a lot of ups and downs. First and foremost, giving buyers (who are assumed to be cryptocurrency holders) the chance to purchase real estate using cryptocurrency gives them a chance to diversify their assets. Not to mention that, different from cryptocurrencies, real estate properties are more often than not locked in profits, giving buyers safe investments that are almost sure to appreciate over time. Buyers also will have increased buying power, cash buyers typically have an advantage in real estate transactions and these digital currencies are no exception. On the other hand, buyers are faced with a limited market; as the use of cryptocurrencies for real estate transactions is still extremely new, there are very little properties on the market for cryptocurrencies. Additionally, when buyers put their cryptocurrencies into these presumably safer investments, they do miss out on the chance for future growth on their cryptocurrency investments. Finally, similar to sellers, buyers are faced with the complicated tax code surrounding cryptocurrencies.
It is clear to see that both selling and buying real estate properties with cryptocurrencies hold a series of tradeoffs. This is a common dilemma for any diversification of assets, however, in the case of cryptocurrencies, these trade-offs are especially high risk and high reward. This being said, blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are developing and integrating faster than ever before. These technologies will continue to grow and become more and more integrated into both society and the real estate world, and they have the potential to completely transform both. So although the future might not be clear for what lies ahead, it is safe to say that transactions via cryptocurrencies are here to stay and are only going to become more prevalent as cryptocurrencies become more accepted by society. With this in mind, people and companies on both ends of real estate transactions should be prepared to adopt this technology into their practices. Those who get an early start are likely to have a competitive advantage and those who don’t may be left scrambling to understand and implement this fast-growing technology.
Partial-Interest Sales
By: Paulina Ruta
Although not a new strategy to commercial real estate, partial sales have become increasingly popular for “large property deals,” billion dollar buildings for example. This is largely due to the mutual appeal to both the buyer and seller of the property. For the buyer, it has become increasing hard to finance such large purchases, and therefore buying in smaller chunks makes it feasible. In addition, foreign buyers get to have their investment tied to a local expert, decreasing their risk of entering an unfamiliar market. On the seller end, partial-interest sales allow them to hold onto a part of the property to continue benefitting from appreciation while moving onto other deals. As stated by Doug Harmon, chairman of Cushman’s capital markets group, these deal are a “marriage” between investor and owner and are the current trend.
Statistics Summarized:
2017: 83% of all deals on Manhattan office buildings were partial-interest sales Comparable to 2015, where 42% of such sales were minority-interest sales
2016-2017: minority-interest deals made up 17% of total sales dollars Comparable to 7.1% recorded during the previous 10-year period.
Article reference: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-sell-a-billion-dollar-building-when-you-can-unload-a-piece-of-it-instead-1520776800
Blackstone's Maui Deal
By: Sara Michaels
It was recently reported that Blackstone is buying the Grand Wailea resort on Maui for 1.1 billion dollars. Blackstone is set to buy the hotel from GIC, which is Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund. The purchase of the property has yet to be made public, so much of the details of the detail are unannounced. However, if the deal goes through, it would be the second-largest hotel deal for a U.S property in history.
The Grand Wailea is a 40 acre and 780-room resort that is currently managed by Hilton. Located on Maui’s southwest shore, the hotel has three restaurants, a spa, nine pools, a 2,000-foot-long river, 11 tennis courts and more.
Along with purchasing the Grand Wailea resort, Blackstone is set to purchase the Turtle Bay resort on Oahu’s North Shore for $330 million. According to the Hotel Management magazine, these two new acquisitions would mark Blackstone’s return to the real estate market in Hawaii, which ended two years ago after the company sold the Hyatt Regency Waikiki Beach Resort.